CPI inflation odds
Where will year-over-year CPI inflation land in the next report?
Kalshi's ladder of year-over-year CPI thresholds for the next release. Each rung is its own contract, so the ladder reads as a probability distribution the market is pricing for the print.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 98% | — | — | 98 / 99 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 3.1% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 98% | — | — | 98 / 99 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 3.2% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 98% | — | — | 98 / 99 | 13K contracts | |
| Above 3.3% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 97% | — | — | 97 / 98 | 10K contracts | |
| Above 3.4% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 96% | — | — | 96 / 97 | 8K contracts | |
| Above 3.5% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 93% | — | — | 94 / 95 | 15K contracts | |
| Above 3.6% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 87% | — | — | 83 / 86 | 19K contracts | |
| Above 3.7% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 75% | — | — | 74 / 75 | 18K contracts | |
| Above 3.8% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 62% | — | — | 62 / 63 | 98K contracts | |
| Above 3.9% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 44% | — | — | 44 / 45 | 107K contracts | |
| Above 4.0% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 31% | — | — | 32 / 34 | 70K contracts | |
| Above 4.1% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 24% | — | — | 24 / 25 | 86K contracts | |
| Above 4.2% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 16% | — | — | 11 / 18 | 21K contracts | |
| Above 4.3% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 14% | — | — | 11 / 13 | 18K contracts | |
| Above 4.4% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 11% | — | — | 11 / 12 | 18K contracts | |
| Above 4.5% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 10% | — | — | 10 / 11 | 56K contracts | |
| Above 4.6% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 9% | — | — | 6 / 7 | 18K contracts | |
| Above 4.7% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 4% | — | — | 4 / 5 | 19K contracts | |
| Above 4.8% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 2% | — | — | 2 / 3 | 5K contracts | |
| Above 4.9% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 2% | — | — | 1 / 2 | 6K contracts | |
| Above 5.0% Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in November 2026? | Kalshi | 2% | — | — | 1 / 2 | 9K contracts |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
What comes next
Wed, Oct 14, 2026 — CPI release, 8:30am ET (BLS) · source: bls.gov release schedule. Full calendar.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.0% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.1% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.2% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.3% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.4% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.5% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.6% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.6% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.7% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.7% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.8% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 3.9% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.9% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.0% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.1% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.1% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.2% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.2% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.3% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.3% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.4% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.4% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.5% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.5% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.6% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.6% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.7% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.7% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.8% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 4.9% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.9% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in November 2026? — Above 5.0% (Kalshi)
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 5.0% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
How to read this market
How Fed and CPI prediction markets work — Thresholds, release dates, and settlement for the Fed and CPI contracts everyone watches: what a hold pays on, how a CPI ladder reads, where the calendars live.
From the newsletter
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
Wed, Oct 7, 2026
Tue, Oct 6, 2026