What this is

Yes/No Daily is the dedicated daily source for prediction market news. Every day it reads what the money says about elections, the Fed, the big games, Bitcoin, and the weather, on Kalshi and Polymarket alike, and explains why a market is interesting, not just where it is trading.

We cover the world through the markets, and we cover the markets themselves: what moved, what did not, where two venues disagree, and where a contract’s fine print differs from what people think they are trading. Every price on the site is pulled from the venues’ public APIs and computed in code.

The daily brief. One email a day, free: the news through the markets, the biggest moves, one long-dated market argued in full, the day’s slate, and the strangest contract on the board. The archive holds every issue.

Live odds pages. One page per market worth revisiting, at the same address every day: the live price on both venues, the change over one and seven days, the exact rule text that settles the contract, and what comes next on the calendar.

Field guides. Plain-English explainers on how these markets work: what a prediction market is, how the two venues differ, what the fees cost, how settlement works, and case studies from our own reporting.

Most traded and the calendar. Where the money went in the last 24 hours, and the releases, decisions, and deadlines ahead that can move it.

Reporting and recommending are different things. A market worth watching is not a trade worth making. When the brief names a call, it is labeled as one, with its price; most days the honest label is “watch.”

Whose number is it? Every probability you read here is one of three: what the market prices, what a named outside model says, or our own estimate, labeled as such. One precedent is a precedent, never an annual rate.

The rule text pays, not the headline. Two contracts on the same question can settle differently on the same day. We quote the venue’s own rule on every odds page for that reason.

“The platforms disagree, but these contracts do not settle on the same thing.”

“The odds moved sharply, and we have not identified a verified catalyst.”

“The favorite won. That does not establish that buying it at yesterday’s price was a good trade.”

Every market is a yes/no question, and the price is the percent chance the money gives it. A YES at 34% costs 34 and pays 100 if it happens; NO costs the other 66. Start with how yes/no contracts work, then how to read the odds.

Corrections, tips, and press: hello@yesnodaily.com. Nothing on this site is investment advice; see the terms and privacy policy.