Live odds
One page per market worth revisiting, at the same address every day. Each shows the live price on Kalshi or Polymarket, the change over one and seven days, the exact rule that settles the contract, what is next on the calendar, and every settled event in the record. Cards without a page of their own are the desk’s most-traded markets right now and open on the venue. Numbers are computed in code from the venues’ public APIs; nothing here is a forecast of ours.
Politics
Politics · Senate control 2026
65.5%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Politics · House control 2026
91.5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Politics · 2028 presidential election odds
19%
J.D. Vance
Politics · Government shutdown odds
38%
Yes