Field guides
Practical, not promotional. Each guide leaves you understanding the mechanics, with a worked example and a link to the live odds page it applies to. New here? Start with what a prediction market is.
Foundation
The mechanics, each with a worked example.
Foundation
What is a prediction market and how does it work
A prediction market is an exchange where traders buy and sell yes/no contracts on future events. The price of each contract doubles as a probability estimate.
Foundation
What you buy when you buy a prediction market contract: a yes/no question priced 0 to 100, what each side pays, and who is on the other side of the trade.
Foundation
A prediction market price of 34 reads as a 34% chance. When that reading holds, when it fails, and how depth, spread, and time change what a price means.
Foundation
Payout versus profit, fees, and spreads
A contract pays 100, but you did not earn 100. Worked examples of what a winning trade returns after the price paid, the spread crossed, and the fee charged.
Foundation
The rule text pays, not the title. How contracts resolve on Kalshi and Polymarket, what a settlement source is, and why a 99% price is not a result.
Venues
How Kalshi works: accounts, orders, fees, and settlement
Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US prediction market. How to fund an account, read the order book, place a limit order, pay the fee, get paid, and withdraw.
Venues
How Polymarket works: USDC, wallets, orders, and resolution
Polymarket runs an order book on Polygon with positions in USDC, plus a separate US-regulated app. How shares, orders, resolution, and withdrawals work on each.
Venues
Polymarket vs Kalshi: fees, rules, access, and the odds
The two big prediction markets differ in regulation, currency, fees, and who can trade. A side-by-side table, plus why the same question prices differently.
Foundation
How to read prediction market odds: cents, percent, and lines
Prediction market prices are probabilities. How to convert cents, percent, American, decimal, and fractional odds each way, with formulas, a table, and the vig.
Category playbooks
What you are predicting, which evidence matters, and which source settles it.
Politics
How to read election markets without confusing odds with vote share
A 60% chance of winning is not 60% of the vote. What election contracts predict, what moves them, and how control-of-Congress contracts actually settle.
Economy
How Fed and CPI prediction markets work
Thresholds, release dates, and settlement for the Fed and CPI contracts everyone watches: what a hold pays on, how a CPI ladder reads, where the calendars live.
Sports
How sports contracts differ from sportsbook bets
A prediction market contract on a game is not a moneyline bet. Spreads, overtime, postponements, the missing bookmaker margin, and how to compare the two prices.
Weather
How temperature markets settle, and why your weather app shows a different number
A daily high temperature contract settles on one station, one data provider, one reading. Why the forecast, the weather app, and the contract can all disagree.
Crypto
"Touches $100,000" versus "closes above $100,000": why contract wording matters
Two crypto contracts on the same price level can settle differently on the same day. Touch contracts, close contracts, deadlines, and the settling price source.
Venues
Are prediction markets legal in your state in 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket US are federally regulated, but states are fighting their sports contracts in court. How to check your state and what open trades face.
Venues
How prediction market winnings are taxed in the US
Prediction market winnings are taxable. What each venue reports to the IRS, why USDC makes Polymarket a crypto question, and the unsettled Section 1256 issue.
Venues
Kalshi fees explained, from the taker formula to breakeven
Kalshi charges takers 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up per order. Why the fee peaks at 50%, a worked table, and how limit orders avoid it.
Venues
How to withdraw from Polymarket without losing your USDC
Global-site balances are USDC on Polygon and leave through a crypto exchange; the US app pays out to a bank. Steps, timing, gas, and the wrong-network mistake.
Politics
How to read the prediction markets on election night 2026
Control contracts settle on control, not seats, per the venue's rule text. How prices move as the count arrives, why 95% is not a call, and what to watch.
Case studies
From our own reporting: markets that looked obvious and settled otherwise.
Economy
The September Fed hike market flipped twice before it paid
A case study of the September 2026 Fed decision market, which went from 62% hike to 57% hold and back to 87% hike before the Fed raised rates on September 16.
Crypto
The bitcoin noon contract that went from 92% to 6% in a day
Polymarket's bitcoin noon ladder in September 2026, when rungs a few hundred dollars below spot priced near 90% one morning and near zero the next.
Politics
United Russia at 74% and 99.1% on the same day, one word apart
Two Polymarket contracts on Russia's 2026 Duma election priced United Russia 25 points apart because one asked whether it gains seats and one whether it wins.