Archive
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Sanctions deadline, meet two-day delay
Iran regime odds hold at 6% (no trade). Zverev jumps 12 points to 87%. Burgum's 0.2% draws $483K anyway.
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
29% odds Apple stays king, Houthis strike Aden
Plus: Lula surges to 22% as Flávio Bolsonaro slips to 78%, and a 0.1% longshot pulls $1.1M in a day.
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
75% says Fed holds Oct 28, CPI says otherwise
PSG's 17% title odds get a pass for now, plus 3% Trump 2028 — Constitution still blocking the door.
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Houthis strike toward Riyadh; Iran invasion odds sit at 17%
Markets shrug off escalation. Plus: Indiana's data-center moratorium climbs to 17%, and Putin's exit odds stay at 3.8%.
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Recession odds: 4%. Fed rhetoric: louder.
Plus: federal agents at Omar's door, Snigur's 85% in Wuhan, and a 5.3% Hormuz-plus-Senate longshot.
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
88.8%: no Hormuz deal, no Senate drama either way
Also: ceasefire announced, missiles fired anyway. 49ers surge to 59% on NFC West. Stephen A. Smith: 0.2%.
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
12 dead in Riyadh, Trump weighs strikes next
Plus: Kane's 65.7% Ballon d'Or case, Jeremiah Smith up 13 to 60%, and UCLA's 1% longshot pulling 431K contracts.
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
4.8 million tons of Russian diesel, waved in
Plus: Iran ceasefire holds at 76% into Halloween, Ruud jumps 27pts on Bu, and 3.1% odds on aliens by New Year's.
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
NFL asks SCOTUS to referee prediction markets
Plus: Iran blockade odds sit at 20% with 22 days left, Lula slips to 14%, and a 0.9% split-Congress longshot.
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
85% say Fed holds in October, up 3 points
Plus: 28% odds on a divided Congress, Isaias bearing down on the Gulf, and a senator's $698K day.
Wed, Oct 7, 2026
2.3% says Putin's still president come January
Plus: Riyadh airport in Houthi crosshairs, Cowboys surge to 51% as Eagles fade to 30%, and a Fed hike at 17%.
Tue, Oct 6, 2026
13% says Iran blockade ends by Oct. 15 — down 3
Plus: Bab el-Mandeb flips to Saudi-backed forces, a 2027 recession priced at 21%, and two RBs tied at 2% for MVP.
Mon, Oct 5, 2026
15%: U.S.-Iran invasion odds as Bab el-Mandeb reignites
Panthers surge to 40% in NFC South, Lions fall 15pts — plus Shakhtar's 0.2% UCL dream draws $425K.
Sun, Oct 4, 2026
Hormuz hit; Jeremiah Smith +22 to 47%
Tanker strike rattles oil traders. Lisnard's 11.9% gets a no-trade. Trump's Nobel odds: 0.7%, $188K bet anyway.
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
100 million barrels, one rung missing in the jobs ladder
NFP above 90K priced at 30% NO. Plus: Indiana's data center moratorium falls to 14%, and Putin's 2.3% exit odds draw $319K.
Fri, Oct 2, 2026
Three carriers, 9,000 troops, zero bets placed yet
Fed holds odds jump to 74% (+11). Senate 2026: 35%, no trade. Browns: 1-in-166, $180K says why not.
Tue, Sep 29, 2026
68% Fed hike odds, but wait for CPI on the 14th
Plus: Hormuz blockade end drops 7pts to 25%, and the Constitution disagrees with the 2.3% pricing a third Trump term.
Mon, Sep 28, 2026
32%: Iran blockade ends by Oct. 31 (talks resume anyway)
Plus: Bitcoin's $82.5K September dip now 91%, and the Xi-Taiwan longshot double: 3.4% vs 3.5%.
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
15 House races just flipped on Cook's map
Plus: Man City priced at 22% for the title on one data point, and aliens beat a half-point Fed hike 3.7% to under 1%.
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
Iran bombing resumes after midterms, Trump says
Plus: Raman's 57% at LA mayor gets a no-trade call, City crash 15 points to 23%, and Hormuz-by-Wednesday bettors risk $1.2M on 0.5% odds.
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
64% say Democrats sweep Congress; Hormuz talks at play
Plus: Maine Senate swings 5 points toward the GOP, and Landrieu's 2028 odds sit at a mere 0.1%.
Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Oil at $105, Iran War Odds Only 13%
Traders shrug off invasion talk. Plus: Fed hike odds jump to 68%, and $424K bets on Shakhtar's 1-in-500 shot.
Wed, Sep 23, 2026
33% (-11): Iran blockade odds slide after annihilation talk
Texas at 12% for the title, pass. Plus Sarah Huckabee Sanders' 1-in-1,000 shot pulls $484K in a day.
Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Hormuz tanker strike, Fed odds stuck at 52%
Plus: Bitcoin's 78% shot at $87.5K, and 0.4% says Trump's still president by Sept. 30.
Mon, Sep 21, 2026
19%: Hormuz traffic stays snarled past New Year's
Tuesday talks loom as Trump meets Zelensky, Bitcoin locks in $82k at 96.7%, and a Fed hike outpolls a half-point cut.
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
Houthi strikes rattle oil routes, Maduro drops 18pts
Barcelona at 21% for the Champions League is a pass. Plus: Jeffries at 1-in-500 pulls $1.3M in a day.
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
Sanctions signed, 100% tariffs on deck; Clarity Act at 8%
Greenland deal jumps to 96% overnight. Iran regime change: 1.1%, $355K traded anyway.
Fri, Sep 18, 2026
196K claims say 4.3% unemployment is a stretch (73% NO)
Plus: SPD swings +29 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Iran claims a tanker hit, and $566K bets on a 0.6% president.
Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Dems at 60% to Sweep, but Senate's a 50-50 Coin Flip
Fed hold slides 8pts to 55%. Musk: 1-in-1,000 for 2028 GOP nod, $948K wagered anyway. Guardians up half a game.
Wed, Sep 16, 2026
8% call $45K Bitcoin; the options math says 1%
Recession odds jump to 15% (+6), Shakhtar's 1-in-500 shot pulls $430K, and the Brewers clinch No. 4 straight.
Tue, Sep 15, 2026
14 straight for LA, Clarity Act sinks to 16% (-11)
No long-dated trade clears the bar today (Fed, Super Bowl, House all wash out). Also: $455K wagered on 0.6% alien-confirmation odds.
Mon, Sep 14, 2026
Fed Hike Odds Jump to 84% (+5)
Giants top Cowboys 28-20 in Harbaugh's debut, recession risk ticks to 7%, and 18 futures markets yield zero trades.
Sun, Sep 13, 2026
Texas Erases 20, Beats Ohio State 24-23
Fed hike odds kink: 83% by October. Barcelona 92% at Levante. Eric Trump 2028: 1-in-500, $204K bet.
Sat, Sep 12, 2026
27-7: 49ers Rout Rams in Australia's NFL Debut
Plus: Braves -5 over Phillies, a futures board with zero edge, and $582K on Stephen A. Smith's 1-in-1,000 shot.
Thu, Sep 10, 2026
Pittsburgh: 1% to Win It All, Traded Like a Contender
Hormuz normal-by-Dec.31 odds slide to 14% (-6); Seahawks take Maye thrice, win opener 13-10; crypto desk sits out.
Wed, Sep 9, 2026
8% Odds Math Solves a Millennium Problem by 2027
No. 1 ranking slides to Wednesday, Shelton's title odds jump 28 points, and the Fed's coin-flip hike looms.
Tue, Sep 8, 2026
United Russia: 73% to Win a Vote With No Opponent
Fed hike odds climb to 51% (+3), SMU survives FSU 27-24, and $581K bets on Youngkin at 1-in-1,000.
Mon, Sep 7, 2026
48-yarder, 76% wrong on Hormuz, and a 500-to-1 CL bet
Ole Miss survives on a field goal. Andreeva drops 21 points in a day. Plus the Champions League ticket moving real money at long odds.
Sun, Sep 6, 2026
24% chance of peace by New Year's. The market says no.
LSU 51, Clemson 10. Man United at 51% to win Everton. Putin's exit odds: 1-in-125.
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
118 days, 14% odds: crypto bill faces the calendar
Israel's airspace closure jumps to 70%. Plus: Alcaraz and Sabalenka roll, and Trump's 1.2% problem.
Fri, Sep 4, 2026
68% on a Fed hike the market isn't pricing right
Colorado wins by one. Bitcoin clears $80K on Waller. The September math doesn't add up.
Thu, Sep 3, 2026
91% says Bitcoin won't crash. We're taking that bet.
Fed hold hits 53% and climbing. Plus: Man City's 9% Champions League shot.
Wed, Sep 2, 2026
17% to win the Super Bowl? The market says not so fast
Rams overpriced in Week 1; plus Badosa surges to 90% and Clooney's 0.1% nomination odds.
Tue, Sep 1, 2026
125 goals, 15% invasion odds, and a 99.9% ceasefire
Messi hangs up the albiceleste. Fed hike chances tick to 58%. Markets are doing a lot today.
Sun, Jul 19, 2026
73.7% priced like a done deal. We're fading it.
Mbappé owns the Golden Boot odds overnight (+49 pts). Plus: a $9 market somehow moving six figures.
Tue, Jul 14, 2026
Lando Norris at 1.9%: F1's math problem explained
Fed holds at 91% (+28 in a day). Plus: LeBron's return to Cleveland is a coin flip, apparently.