How settlement works

Every contract ends the same way: the venue declares which side is worth 100 and pays it. The declaration follows a rule written before trading began. Reading that rule is the single most useful habit in these markets, because the title is marketing and the rule is the contract.

The rule names a source and a moment

A well-written rule answers three questions. What counts: a Fed "cut" means the target range moves down at the named meeting, not a remark in a press conference. Who decides: a named source, whether an agency release, an official result, a weather station report, or a set of news organizations. When it is read: a specific date and time, after which nothing changes the outcome.

Our trackers show each contract's rule text verbatim under "What actually settles it." Compare it with the title. The gaps are where money is lost.

The two venues resolve differently

Kalshi is a regulated exchange. It writes the rules, names the settlement source, and determines the result itself. Its markets pass through states: open, closed when trading ends, and settled when the result is recorded. The result is the venue's determination against the source it named.

Polymarket settles through a resolution process in which a proposed outcome can be challenged before it becomes final. Most markets resolve quietly. Contested ones go through dispute rounds, and a market can show "resolution proposed, finalization pending" for a period. Until finalization, the outcome is proposed, not decided, and we write it that way. This describes both venues as of September 2026; check each venue's own rules page before relying on it.

A price is not a result

A contract at 99 has not resolved. It is priced as near-certain, which is different. Markets have traded above 90 the day before settling NO; our case studies collect those episodes on purpose. When we report an outcome, it is because the venue recorded it, never because the tape reached 99.

A worked example

Take a CPI contract titled "Inflation above 3.3% in August." The rule text says it settles YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' first release of August year-over-year CPI, rounded to one decimal, is 3.4% or higher, and that later revisions do not count. The release prints 3.4%. Two weeks later a revision takes it to 3.3%.

What a reader might assume	What the rule text says	Result
"Above 3.3%" means strictly more than 3.3	Rounded to one decimal, 3.4 qualifies	YES
The revision to 3.3% changes the outcome	First release governs; revisions are ignored	Still YES
The market at 96% the night before was "settled"	Only the venue's recorded outcome settles it	YES, when recorded

Every line in the table is decided by a sentence in the rule, not by the title. The CPI odds page quotes that sentence under the price for this reason.

When the headline and the rule diverge

• A "government shutdown" contract may settle on whether an appropriations lapse occurs at a specific deadline, regardless of whether agencies actually close.
• A "ceasefire" contract may require a specific announcement by specific parties, not merely a pause in fighting.
• A temperature contract settles on one named station's reading from one named provider, not on the weather in the city.
• A championship contract may specify what happens if the season is cancelled or a game is replayed.

Disputes and edge cases

A rule dispute is not a settled result. If a source publishes a revision, a rule may say the first print governs, or the revised one; both exist. If a source is discontinued, rules often name a fallback. When we are unsure how a contract will resolve, we say so, and we do not report an outcome until the venue has recorded it.

What to take away

• Read the rule before the price. Our tracker pages put both on the same screen.
• Know which venue you are on; they resolve differently.
• Proposed is not final, and 99% is not settled.
• Every odds page quotes the venue's own rule text under the price, so you can see where the headline and the rule disagree before it settles.