From today’s issue · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
At a glance
- No. 4 Ohio State visits unbeaten No. 5 Indiana today in the biggest college-football money on the board, with Ohio State priced to win at 59% after slipping (−2).
- Trump delayed new Russia sanctions two days before the deadline, keeping the sanctions clock paused as the Ukraine war continues.
- Alexander Zverev jumped to 87% (+12) to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Shanghai Masters.
- Doug Burgum is priced at 0.2% for the 2028 Republican nomination — and still pulled in $483K in a day.
- A Polymarket trader cashed out $448K selling YES on Eintracht Frankfurt to win Friday’s Bundesliga match at 99.9%.
Live now
The board, this minute
- Fed decision odds6%Hike 25bps
- Fed funds rate odds35%Above 4.75%
- CPI inflation odds44%Above 3.9%
- Jobs report odds51%Above 70,000
- Senate control 202668.5%Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- House control 202692.5%Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Inside every issue
Six sections. Five minutes.
- 01The news, through the markets
Every story runs through a live contract: what happened, what the price did, what would change it.
- 02Biggest movers
The five prices that moved most in 24 hours across both venues, with the catalyst if there is one.
- 03Futures
One long-dated market a day, argued in full: the case for, the case against, and where the price sits.
- 04The Slip
Today's slate, labeled honestly: what is a trade idea, what is a price to watch, and what is only interesting.
- 05Biggest trades
Where the money actually went: the largest positions taken on the board since yesterday.
- 06The Longshot
The strangest contract on the board, and the surprisingly serious reason it exists.
Why it reads differently
Pundits guess. The money answers.
A prediction market price is a number thousands of people put real money behind. It moves the moment the news changes, and it does not care who is talking. We read it every day, on both venues, and tell you what moved and why.
We keep three distinctions: reporting is not recommending, every probability says whose number it is, and the contract’s rule text pays, not the headline. That is the whole editorial policy.
Questions
Before you subscribe
- What is a prediction market?
- A market where each contract is a yes/no question and the price is the percent chance the money gives it. A YES at 34% costs 34 and pays 100 if it happens. We explain the mechanics in plain English in the field guides.
- Do I need to trade to get anything out of this?
- No. Most readers never place a trade. The odds are a fast, honest read on the news: the market repriced the Fed, the Senate, or the Super Bowl before the pundits did, and the brief tells you why.
- Is this investment advice?
- No. Yes/No Daily is a news publication. It reports prices, explains contracts, and labels its opinions as opinions. Nothing here is a recommendation.
- How often does it arrive, and what does it cost?
- Once a day, and nothing. Unsubscribe with one click at the bottom of any issue.
- Which venues do you cover?
- Kalshi and Polymarket, side by side. When the two disagree, we say so and explain what the contracts actually settle on.
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