Economy oddsQuotes as of Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 9:32 AM ET

Recession odds

Does the NBER declare a U.S. recession?

Kalshi's recession contract, settled on the National Bureau of Economic Research's dating committee, not on two negative quarters. Read the rule: the declaration can come long after the downturn starts.

The market now

MarketVenueYES1d7dBid / AskVolumeHistory
Starts
Will there be a recession in 2026?
Kalshi2%——2 / 33.8M contracts
Yes
Will there be a recession in 2027?
Kalshi20%——21 / 22756K contracts

YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.

What actually settles it

The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.

Will there be a recession in 2026? — Starts (Kalshi)

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trading closes Sun, Jan 31, 2027, 8:25 AM ET. View on Kalshi

Will there be a recession in 2027? — Yes (Kalshi)

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trading closes Mon, Jan 31, 2028, 8:25 AM ET. View on Kalshi

How to read this market

How settlement works — The rule text pays, not the title. How contracts resolve on Kalshi and Polymarket, what a settlement source is, and why a 99% price is not a result.

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