Unemployment rate odds
Where will the unemployment rate land in the next jobs report?
Kalshi's ladder of unemployment-rate thresholds for the next release. One contract per rung, so the ladder reads as the distribution the market is pricing for the print.
The market now
| Market | Venue | YES | 1d | 7d | Bid / Ask | Volume | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.7% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October? | Kalshi | 99% | — | — | 99 / 100 | 4K contracts | |
| Above 3.8% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October? | Kalshi | 99% | — | — | 98 / 99 | 11K contracts | |
| Above 3.9% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October? | Kalshi | 97% | — | — | 97 / 98 | 9K contracts | |
| Above 4.0% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October? | Kalshi | 94% | — | — | 94 / 96 | 13K contracts | |
| Above 4.1% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October? | Kalshi | 72% | — | — | 68 / 72 | 52K contracts | |
| Above 4.2% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October? | Kalshi | 31% | — | — | 30 / 33 | 14K contracts | |
| Above 4.3% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October? | Kalshi | 7% | — | — | 6 / 7 | 12K contracts | |
| Above 4.4% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October? | Kalshi | 24% | — | — | 1 / 3 | 13K contracts | |
| Above 4.5% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in October? | Kalshi | 2% | — | — | 1 / 2 | 30K contracts | |
| Above 4.6% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in October? | Kalshi | 3% | — | — | 1 / 2 | 5K contracts | |
| Above 4.7% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in October? | Kalshi | 1% | — | — | 0 / 2 | 6K contracts | |
| Above 4.8% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in October? | Kalshi | 1% | — | — | 0 / 2 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 4.9% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in October? | Kalshi | 1% | — | — | 0 / 2 | 2K contracts | |
| Above 5.0% Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in October? | Kalshi | 1% | — | — | 0 / 1 | 2K contracts |
YES is the price of the “yes” side in percent; a contract pays 100 if it happens. Changes are in points. Kalshi volume is in contracts; Polymarket volume is in dollars. They are not comparable.
What actually settles it
The venue’s own rule text for each contract, as published at quote time. This is the sentence that pays, and it can differ from the headline.
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October? — Above 3.7% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October? — Above 3.8% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October? — Above 3.9% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October? — Above 4.0% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October? — Above 4.1% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October? — Above 4.2% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October? — Above 4.3% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October? — Above 4.4% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in October? — Above 4.5% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in October? — Above 4.6% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.6% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in October? — Above 4.7% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in October? — Above 4.8% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.8% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in October? — Above 4.9% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.9% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in October? — Above 5.0% (Kalshi)
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 5.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Trading closes Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. View on Kalshi
How to read this market
How Fed and CPI prediction markets work — Thresholds, release dates, and settlement for the Fed and CPI contracts everyone watches: what a hold pays on, how a CPI ladder reads, where the calendars live.
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